The Southeast United States has been plagued by flooding rains for over a week now and as I write this, 9 deaths have been to blame. Stu Ostro, senior director of weather communications at The Weather Channel states, “It’s very unusual to have that much rain at this time of the year in Georgia without it being from a tropical storm or hurricane.” The point here? No, a tropical storm or hurricane did not make landfall, and this has now landed on the radar of scientists who study climate change and global warming. What exactly is the link? An article sent to me today from Resource Media, outlines a recent climate report concerning the SE US and what impacts may be likely as we move through time. They provide excerpts from the report and are listed here.
“Floods and droughts are likely to become more common and more intense as regional and seasonal precipitation patterns change, and rainfall becomes more concentrated into heavy events (with longer, hotter dry periods in between)” -Global Climate Change Impacts, page 44
“Average Autumn precipitation has increased by 30% for the [Southeast] region since 1901. ...There has been an increase in heavy downpours in many parts of the region, while the percentage of the region experiencing moderate to severe drought increased over the past three decades.” -Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, page 111
“One of the clearest precipitation trends in the United States is the increasing frequency and intensity of heavy downpours. This increase was responsible for most of the observed increase in overall precipitation during the last 50 years.” -Global Climate Change Impacts, page 32
“ A warmer world produces both wetter and drier conditions. Even though total global precipitation increases, the regional and seasonable distribution of precipitation changes, and more precipitation comes in heavier rains (which can cause flooding) rather than light events. In the past century, averaged over the United States, total precipitation has increased nearly 20%.” -Global Climate Change Impacts, page 44
Just over a month ago, I sat in on a conference call with these same scientists who detailed these same points. It is easier to believe these findings when a catastrophic flood hits your hometown but for others, it might take some more convincing. The weather in our region has been anything but normal for more than a year now. Extreme changes month to month, even day to day. Much of that has to do with the influence from La Nina and El Nino but more and more I have to believe that something more is going on. I am not saying that Global Warming created our Ice Storm or caused Ike's remnants to restrengthen over land. What I am saying is that looking into climate change (and yes, global warming) for answers to extreme changes over the long term, is worth the effort and could give us insight to the future. Reading articles and papers from different scientists (for and against) is the smartest way to learn more.
If you would like to read a full summary of climate change impacts in the Southeastern United States from Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, you can find it available at
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports.scientific-assessments/us-impacts/regional-climate-change-impacts/southeast
Chief Meteorologist Jennifer Rukavina [I]
