Today's Forecast Discussion: Warm Weather Continues!
Wednesday, Nov. 10 (2PM):
What a string of nice days we've put together for this work week! While not quite record territory, daytime highs in the mid 70's are about 15 degrees above normal for the first half of November. We'll continue to stick with highs in the mid 70's for Veterans Day and Friday, with lows in the mid 40's.
Still looking at a cold front being the main player in our weather picture for the weekend. As you recall, my posts over the weekend centered around timing issues with this front and its associated rain chances, and timing still seems to be an issue. The GFS (Global Forecast System) is the faster of the models, bringing the leading edge of the rain into SEMO Friday night, and pushing it east of the region by noon Saturday.
GFS 12-Hr. Precip (Sat. 6AM-6PM)
The NAM (North American Model) is slower, showing rain just arriving in SEMO & S. IL at 6PM Saturday. So...until these model differences come into better agreement, it's going to be tough to nail down a more exact forecast for when exactly rain may impact weekend plans. Bottom line.....keep the rain jacket close by on Saturday.
NAM 12-Hr. Precip (Sat. 6AM-6PM)
Two things that models are both agreeing on for the weekend is a definite drying-trend with this system, and cooler temperatures. As you can see on the two images above, forecast rainfall totals are quite unimpressive. Based on this trend, I'd be quite surprised if anyone in our region came away with much more than a quarter-inch of rain through Saturday. As for the cooler temperatures, chillier air will arrive with the front, sending thermometers tumbling back into the 30's by Saturday night...and only the lower 50's in the daytime Sunday-Tuesday.
It now appears that Saturday's cold front may only be the first of two rain chances for the weekend. We're now watching a second system will take shape over the central/southern Plains, and head to our south, tossing moisture our way by late Sunday night. This system will be tricky, as a subtle shift south in the track of this storm could keep most of the significant rain to our south. For now, it looks like a decent chance of rain anywhere from late Sunday night through Monday for the southern half or so of the region, and maybe even a lingering shower on Tuesday. Models are currently showing 0.50"-1.00" on Monday....but lately, models have exhibited a bias toward being too wet for storms that were still a few days away. Also of interest is that low temperatures are looking to drop into the mid 30's Sunday & Monday night, so if we did see some wet weather during the coldest periods of the overnights, there is an outside shot at seeing a snowflake or two mix in. Stay tuned for more on this system.
Today's High/Low: 74 / 41
Today's Normal High/Low: 60 / 38
Record High/Low: 84 (1946) / 14 (1991)
Precip: November: 0.25" / 11.81" Below Avg. for 2010
Sunrise/Sunset: 6:28 AM / 4:49 PM