Today's Forecast Discussion: Near-Record Warmth
Thursday, Nov. 11 (3PM):
First of all, Happy Veterans Day, and a special thank you to all of the men and women who have served, or are currently serving our country. You deserve this nice weather today!
As of this update, we have made it up to 78 here at the weather center....one degree shy of the record high of 79 set back in 1989. It sure would be nice if we could bottle up some of this weather for the coming months, as after tomorrow, it would appear that we will say goodbye to the warmth for a while.
Tomorrow's record high is 78...we'll make a good run at it, with temperatures tomorrow expected to be very similar to today.
Still looking at a brief round of light rain for most areas Saturday as a cold front slides through from west to east. Models continue to exhibit some differences in timing and amount of rainfall, but it looks like a pretty safe bet that you'll need to umbrella at some point. As for timing, I'm going to stick to the GFS (Global Forecast System) and our station's RPM model. Current thinking is that rain will hold off until Saturday....rain should enter our western areas in SEMO by daybreak.....crossing east of the Mississippi River roughly around noon, and sliding toward the Lakes Region by mid to late afternoon. Amounts will be quite unimpressive...as you can see below, the NAM is trying to just dry up the rain altogether, while the GFS keeps us below 0.50".
GFS 24-hr precip (12AM Sat-12AM Sun)
NAM 24 hr precip (12AM Sat-12AM Sun)
Moving on...Sunday looks like a dry, but chillier day, then we have to figure out what to do with Monday of next week. Here is a look at what the GFS showed with last night's model run for Monday morning:
GFS surface pressure/precip: 6AM Monday
Models had been forecasting an overrunning type rainfall setup for late Sunday night and Monday, with a mid-level impulse tracking to our south. That was last night's model....showing a decent rainfall, especially across the southeastern corner of the area. Here is the latest model run from this morning:
GFS surface pressure/precip: 6AM Monday (latest update)
Looks a lot different huh? This is a prime example of what we call "poor model-to-model consistency"...when models totally flip-flop, making longer range forecasting difficult. We had been pretty confident that we would have a decent shot at measureable rain Monday, and for now, I still am. Since this is only the first model run that keeps the rain to our south, we'll go ahead and keep a rain chance in our forecast....however, we'll have to watch and see if this trend continues...may have to trim back the rain chances a bit.
Beyond the Monday rain situation, most of the rest of next week looks pretty uneventful. Latest model numbers show temperatures continuing to drop as we head into the latter portions of the week.....overall, we'll expect 50's during the daytime & 30's at night....pretty close to average.
Today's High & Low (at WPSD): 78 / 45
Average High & Low: 59 / 38
Record High & Low: 59 (1989) / 18 (1960)
Precip: November - 0.30" (11.96" below average for 2010)
Sunrise / Sunset: 6:30 AM / 4:48 PM