Today's Forecast Discussion: Weekend Changes
Friday, Nov. 12 (3PM)
After writing this post I've got to get ready to make my ice skating debut on Local 6 at 5! It doesn't exactly seem fitting for temperatures to be flirting with the 80 degree mark as we talk about the opening of Paducah's ice rink....but a weekend storm system will bring temperatures back down to readings that are more typical of mid November.
Today's record high is 78, set in 1989......so far we've made it to 77 here at the weather center.
The focus of my posts this week have centered around a weekend rain chance, and it still appears that we'll need the umbrellas at least for a little while tomorrow. Unfortunately, speaking in meteorologist terms, tomorrow looks like a "high POP/low QPF" scenario. Putting that in layman's terms.....POP stands for "percentage of precipitation", and QPF stand for "quantitative precipitation forecast".....meaning many of us will see a short period of rain, but only small amounts are expected.
With severe to extreme drought conditions persisting, we really need a good, long-duration, soaking rain to help reduce our rainfall deficit (currently 12.11" below avg for the year), and tomorrow will not provide that type of rain. We're still looking for the cold front that's been hanging out to our west to finally get an eastward push late tonight and slide through the Local 6 region by tomorrow night. I'm expecting at least some scattered showers to be moving into our far western counties in SEMO by daybreak Saturday......then a broken line of showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder pushing across the Mississippi River around lunchtime.....making it to the Lakes region by late afternoon, and out of the area by 10PM or so. I do think that the forcing and amount of moisture associated with this front will allow for a fairly continuous, north to south band of rain, and there may be some very brief pockets of heavier rain. Don't expect an all-day rain though, as the band of showers will likely pass on through within a few hours. Amounts are still slim, with the latest HPC forecast, as seen below, limiting our area to 0.25" or less.
As for the Sunday night/Monday rain situation and forecast model inconsistency that I addressed in yesterday's post, I'm still on the fence as far as what's going to happen there. Last night's model run showed light rain making it as far north as KY & TN, but this morning's model run once again keeps the entire area dry. So, until I see a more consistent signal in the models, we'll go ahead and keep a slight chance of rain in the forecast for Sunday night and Monday.....but I think it's safe to say that any rain would be limited to areas in KY & TN.
Temperatures this weekend will drop back to around our seasonal averages, maybe even a little below avg for Sunday. Then it looks like a quick-moving clipper-type cold front will swing through here on Wednesday, bringing a fresh batch of chilly Canadian air for the end of the week. Looks like we'll have another frosty morning or two by the end of the workweek.
Today's High & Low: 77 / 46 (at WPSD)
Average High & Low: 59 / 38
Record High & Low: 78 (1989, 1985) / 21 (1995, 1986, 1976)
Precip: November: 0.30" (12.11" below avg for 2010)
Sunrise / Sunset: 6:31 AM / 4:47 PM