Today's Weather Discussion: Rain on the Way
Sunday, Nov. 21:
Hey everyone, I hope your weekend has been a good one. As expected, a nice breeze out of the south has developed, giving us a mild night. Temperatures really won't drop much tonight...expect lows in the upper 50's to around 60.
The forecast for the upcoming week and holiday weekend continues to evolve, and it continues to include multiple rain chances and a big cooldown. Our Monday should see one more day of dry weather, so if you are looking to do some cleaning up in the yard, or maybe get an early start on those Christmas decorations, tomorrow is the day to do it. An area of low pressure will lift from central KS tomorrow morning toward the Great Lakes tomorrow night, eventually dragging a cold front into the area from the west tomorrow night. This cold front will be responsible for providing round one of showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder. Here's a look at the setup as of Monday at 6PM:
Based on the latest forecast models, I'm expecting a few scattered showers to be possible by late afternoon in SEMO and S. IL, then a more organized line of showers and storms to move through the area overnight and into early Tuesday morning. There are some timing differences in the departure of the rain in KY & TN....the GFS keeps this system on the move and clears eastern sections of the region from the rain early Tuesday morning, while the NAM lingers some showers over eastern section through much of the day. For now, I'm leaning more toward the faster solution, which would mean most of the day Tuesday will feature dry weather....perhaps even some sunshine at times.
Back to the image above....notice the area of low pressure way up in the Pacific northwest, near Seattle....that will swing around into central KS by Wed. afternoon, sending a warm front surging through our area. Looks like a round of showers and thunderstorms may accompany that front. Behind the warm front, we'll see another surge of warm, moist Gulf air Wed. night, getting us juiced up for another round of showers and thunderstorms as the cold front associated with this system arrives early Thursday morning. Unfortunately, this latest information suggests that we will have to deal with wet weather at least into the morning hours of our Thanksgiving Day....possible later into the day if this system slows down. Here's a poorly-illustrated (by myself) look at the latest run of the GFS near the earth's surface at 6AM Thursday:
Some very cold air will race in behind the cold front....with Thursday's temperatures likely falling steadily through the day. What's going to be interesting to watch is whether or not the cold air catches up with moisture over our area, or if that happens farther to our east. If the cold air does make it here in time, there is a small possibility that a little wintry precip could mix in with the rain over parts of KY or TN on Thursday. It's a very slim chance for now, and it certainly wouldn't have much of an impact on travel. You'll defintely want to check ahead if you have travel plans on Wed. and Thu., as rain will likely slow you down. Over the next 5 days, we could be looking at some pretty healthy rainfall totals between 1-3"
The pattern looks colder and quieter for Friday and the weekend, with those Black Friday tempertures still looking like they'll be in the mid 20's. Brrr. A slow warmup should begin with sunny skies over the weekend.