Today's Weather Discussion: Sunny Sunday/Messy Monday
Saturday, Nov. 27:
No complaints today as sunshine helped temperatures warm into the upper 40's....still a few degrees below our average high of 53....but more tolerable than Friday's cold. With more rain on the way to begin the new work week, it's good that we've had a few days to dry out a bit. Last week brought more rain than our area has seen in months.....if you want to check out the weekly precip totals from several reporting stations across the area, click here.
Tonight will be just slightly colder than average, with lows around 30. An area of high pressure will be centered over Virginia tomorrow, helping our winds to shift around to the southeast. Along with plenty of sunshine, this will aide our temperatures back into the mid 50's. A few high clouds may arrive later tomorrow afternoon ahead of the next storm that will bring a Monday mess as we get back to our normal routines after the holiday weekend.
As we look to our northwest tonight, a new mid-level trough has arrived on the west coast, and will deepen as it progresses east across the Rockies tomorrow and into Monday. The image below shows the 500 mb chart (mid-levels of the atmosphere) for Sat. 6PM (top left) through Mon. 6AM (bottom right). Notice the U-shaped featured highlighted by the yellow and red colors that progresses from the west coast to the Plains....that is the trough that I'm referring to. Ahead (to the east) of the trough, a strong southwest flow pattern will set up over our area Monday that will open us up for the return of plenty of Gulf moisture as a low-level jet sets up. This will set the stage for a good rainfall.
The latest set of models I have looked at has slowed this system just a tad since yesterday, so it now looks like Monday morning will start off dry, with rain spreading east as the day wears on. I expect rain to arrive across SEMO not too long after lunch, and I think most of us will at least be dealing with some light rain by the evening commute. The heaviest of the rain will be over the area between 6PM and midnight as the cold front approaches from the west. Here's what the GFS looks like at 6PM Monday:
Heavy rainfall may become a concern in a few spots late Monday night. This rain will be coming on the heels of anywhere from 2-4" of rain last week, and with lots of leaves laying around, drainage will still be a little slower than usual. The current flash flood guidance, which is an estimate of how much rain would need to fall over a given period of time to create flooding, is running from 2.7"-3.0" over a 6 hours period. I don't think we'll receive that much rain on a widespread level, but there may be a few isolated spots that could have to contend with some standing water. Overall, I think the map below from the HPC/NWS looks reasonable for rainfall totals for this storm, ranging from 1.5"-2.0".
Much like on Thanksgiving Day, a strong cold front will sweep much colder air into the region on Tuesday. I expect our high for the day to be reached in the morning, with falling tempertures throughout the daytime. And while the real noteworthy rains will move east of here by Tuesday morning, it's possible that a little moisture will linger behind the front, with a few sprinkles mixing with snow flurries. Again, like this past go around, it won't be a big deal. At this point, I'm not convinced that we'll see much of anything.
Beyond this storm, we'll enjoy another quiet period for the rest of the week. Temperatures will slowly rebound back to the lower 50's by Friday & Saturday. Could be another small rain chance by next weekend, but for now, that system doesn't look too strong, so I haven't included a rain chance in my forecast yet. I'll have another update tomorrow, hope you'll check it out!