Today's Weather Discussion: Wild Weather Calms Down


Meteorologist Trent Okerson

Friday, Nov. 26:

I hope you have had a happy Thanksgiving holiday thus far....hopefully you paced yourself better than me at the dinner table!  As expected, the past couple of days did indeed bring some dramatic weather to our part of the country, with temperatures falling 35-40 degrees from yesterday morning to today.  We had everything from heavy rain, to severe weather, and even sleet and snow yesterday.  Reviewing the official NWS storm reports, there were a handful of reports of damaging winds with storms yesterday in NW TN, including 8-10 homes with roof damage in Humboldt, and reports of trees down in parts of Henry & Gibson counties.  On the other side of the equation, up to an inch of snow was reported on the ground this morning in parts of Christian Co., KY.  Rainfall totals with yesterday's storm ranged from 0.86" in Paducah, to 2.43" in Cape Girardeau.  For the entire week, three separate rounds of rainfall produced these totals since Monday at 7AM:  Paducah:  2.37", Cape:  3.32", Poplar Bluff:  2.77", Carbondale:  3.69",  Owensboro:  2.72".

Looking ahead to the upcoming weekend, high pressure will dominate the weather scene, with lots of sunshine, and a slight warmup.  Here's a look at the map as of 6AM Sunday:

High pressure centered over West Virginia will be responsible for keeping our skies clear through Sunday.  As the high slips east by Sunday, return flow on the western side of the high will steer winds around to the SE by Sunday, aiding temperatures back into the mid 50's.  You'll also notice on the map above a new area of low pressure and a cold front developing out west over the western Plains....that will be our weather-maker for Monday.  Here is a look at the GFS model for 6PM Monday:

You'll notice the shades of purple, blue, and green over the Mid Mississippi Valley, that is the 12 hour precip total....showing rainfall of generally under 0.50" across our region.  There are a few minor question marks surrounding this system.  First, the three forecast models I typically look at have some timing differences.  The GFS brings rain into the area Monday morning, while the NAM is a little slower and doesn't call for the arrivial of rain until Monday night.  The GFS handled the past system very well, so my inclination is to lean in its direction....which would mean rain chances will be with us by Monday morning.  As for the departure of the system, again, there are some differences of opinion.  The GFS moves this system east of here by about midnight Monday night....the European model wants to keep it around into Tuesday.  Again, leaning toward the GFS, I think the cold front will sweep through Monday night, but a little secondary disturbance swinging around the back side of this system will probably keep us cloudy and maybe even a little damp on Tuesday.  This one doesn't look like it will put as much of a dent in our rainfall deficit, as most of us should see less than an inch of rain.

After this system departs, another fresh batch of cold air will begin filtering in Tuesday, with dry weather returning for the rest of next week.